What do you do with an enigmatic seven-footer with all the potential in the world and what sometimes seems like all the basketball sense of a pogo stick? He blows you away with his athleticism, his ability to block shots and send home an oop from anywhere, but in the same breath drives you nuts with his apparent obsession to make ESPN's Top Plays every night? His mom says he's "the future of the NBA". I just want to know if he's the future for the Wizards. He's a restricted free agent at the end of the season, and it has been rumored that he feels he is a near-max player. What do the Wizards do?
As frustrating as JaVale is, I say you keep him. He's 24, and despite the antics, he does seem to have improved quite a bit this season. He's developed a few moves, and while they often look like luck when they go in, it's obvious that he has worked to hone his craft. We know from the article with his mom that he hired a coach to assist him this offseason, so I believe that he wants to and is willing to improve. Plus, if you have a homegrown talent, particularly a center that has shown loads of promise, I think you have to look to keep him around (I know the inevitable "Well how did that logic work for you with Blatche?" question comes to mind here. Shut up.).
I probably don't have to tell you this, but this isn't a terribly talented roster. Other than John Wall (and possibly Vesely or Singleton at SF), McGee is the only potential long-term starter that I see on the current roster. Wall is in his second season, and you've seen his frustration on the court at times. While this isn't an immediate thought, I think if you don't start building before long, we're going to run out of time with Jimmy. Why dump a center that you've watched groom? Who's on the market that can fill JaVale's place if you let him walk? Do you draft a center, and then ask John to wait for another year or two for a guy to develop at center, when you could resign McGee and use the high draft pick on another position of dire need? I feel like McGee needs to be groomed and looked upon as a core piece. While I like some of the others, I think they are very clearly expendable, to me. Direct your drafts, free agent and trade targets around what these two need around them to be successful (low-post scoring, rebounding, SHOOTERS).
What do you pay him? My favorite site, Bullets Forever, created a poll gauging whether or not the fans want the Wizards to keep McGee. Of the over 800 votes, 90% sided with keeping McGee. However, 61% said at less than $10 million. Listen, I'm a realist. Unless he gets frustrated with the market this offseason and signs our qualifying offer, JaVale ain't coming back for anything less than $10 million. DeAndre Jordan, a restricted free agent coming into this season who doesn't have the potential of JaVale, signed an offer sheet with the Warriors for over $40 million for four years. This offer was matched by the Clippers. Kwame Brown, who us local fans LOVE to hate, signed a one-year contract with Golden State for SEVEN MILLION DOLLARS! The going rate for an average starting center in today's NBA is over $10 million, folks. If we want to keep him, we're going to have to pay him. Besides, as I've mentioned in the past, as poor a job as you can easily say that Ernie Grunfeld has done as GM, he has, if nothing else, arranged the books this time around so that there is the flexibility to build a contender either through trade, free agency, the draft, or some combination of the three. Per the NBA Salaries section of HoopsHype.com, below is a chart of the Wizards' five-year salary cap situation (including figures for this season, I assure you, Shelvin Mack is not playing here free of charge. I'll have to get more info about the value of his deal.).
The Wizards are potentially going to have a LOT of cap room this offseason. If Rashard Lewis is bought out of his contract (only $10M of the $24M is guaranteed) and Blatche is amnestied, that would leave only $16M (I threw in $800k for Mack as a rough guess) on the books for next season. With the new CBA, teams have to spend at least 85% of the salary cap next season. Using this season's $58M cap as a guide, the salary floor would be $49.3M. At some point, you HAVE to spend somewhere, right? Why not give McGee somewhere in the neighborhood of $10-12 million for four years? And if we're skeptical, why not do something where the third year is a team option, so if they're fed up after two seasons they can drop him?
By the same token, per the poll above, I wouldn't say spend whatever it takes to keep JaVale either. A max contract for a player with less than six years in the league (McGee will be going into his fifth season next year) is either $9 million or 1/4 of the salary cap (using last year's cap would make this figure $14,511,000), whichever is greater. Somewhere the line has to be drawn - although I'm not quite sure where - but when we hear that he is looking for a near-max contract, and that the team is willing to match all offers, that number isn't as crazy as it sounds.
The most immediate question regarding the future of the Wizards should be who will be buying the groceries for the next phase of the process. Given that he created this situation where we effectively have to blow the roster up again, does Grunfeld deserve another shot to create this team? Does he get a pass for his decisions to go for home runs instead of singles and doubles so often in the draft? Should a GM be brought in that utilizes advanced metrics (Moneyball) - for what it's worth, if I'm Ted, I ask Kevin Pritchard what his prize is and add a million - the way that Daryl Morey does in Houston? Either way, once Ted answers this question, the next one should be what to do with JaVale McGee.
As frustrating as JaVale is, I say you keep him. He's 24, and despite the antics, he does seem to have improved quite a bit this season. He's developed a few moves, and while they often look like luck when they go in, it's obvious that he has worked to hone his craft. We know from the article with his mom that he hired a coach to assist him this offseason, so I believe that he wants to and is willing to improve. Plus, if you have a homegrown talent, particularly a center that has shown loads of promise, I think you have to look to keep him around (I know the inevitable "Well how did that logic work for you with Blatche?" question comes to mind here. Shut up.).
I probably don't have to tell you this, but this isn't a terribly talented roster. Other than John Wall (and possibly Vesely or Singleton at SF), McGee is the only potential long-term starter that I see on the current roster. Wall is in his second season, and you've seen his frustration on the court at times. While this isn't an immediate thought, I think if you don't start building before long, we're going to run out of time with Jimmy. Why dump a center that you've watched groom? Who's on the market that can fill JaVale's place if you let him walk? Do you draft a center, and then ask John to wait for another year or two for a guy to develop at center, when you could resign McGee and use the high draft pick on another position of dire need? I feel like McGee needs to be groomed and looked upon as a core piece. While I like some of the others, I think they are very clearly expendable, to me. Direct your drafts, free agent and trade targets around what these two need around them to be successful (low-post scoring, rebounding, SHOOTERS).
What do you pay him? My favorite site, Bullets Forever, created a poll gauging whether or not the fans want the Wizards to keep McGee. Of the over 800 votes, 90% sided with keeping McGee. However, 61% said at less than $10 million. Listen, I'm a realist. Unless he gets frustrated with the market this offseason and signs our qualifying offer, JaVale ain't coming back for anything less than $10 million. DeAndre Jordan, a restricted free agent coming into this season who doesn't have the potential of JaVale, signed an offer sheet with the Warriors for over $40 million for four years. This offer was matched by the Clippers. Kwame Brown, who us local fans LOVE to hate, signed a one-year contract with Golden State for SEVEN MILLION DOLLARS! The going rate for an average starting center in today's NBA is over $10 million, folks. If we want to keep him, we're going to have to pay him. Besides, as I've mentioned in the past, as poor a job as you can easily say that Ernie Grunfeld has done as GM, he has, if nothing else, arranged the books this time around so that there is the flexibility to build a contender either through trade, free agency, the draft, or some combination of the three. Per the NBA Salaries section of HoopsHype.com, below is a chart of the Wizards' five-year salary cap situation (including figures for this season, I assure you, Shelvin Mack is not playing here free of charge. I'll have to get more info about the value of his deal.).
The Wizards are potentially going to have a LOT of cap room this offseason. If Rashard Lewis is bought out of his contract (only $10M of the $24M is guaranteed) and Blatche is amnestied, that would leave only $16M (I threw in $800k for Mack as a rough guess) on the books for next season. With the new CBA, teams have to spend at least 85% of the salary cap next season. Using this season's $58M cap as a guide, the salary floor would be $49.3M. At some point, you HAVE to spend somewhere, right? Why not give McGee somewhere in the neighborhood of $10-12 million for four years? And if we're skeptical, why not do something where the third year is a team option, so if they're fed up after two seasons they can drop him?
By the same token, per the poll above, I wouldn't say spend whatever it takes to keep JaVale either. A max contract for a player with less than six years in the league (McGee will be going into his fifth season next year) is either $9 million or 1/4 of the salary cap (using last year's cap would make this figure $14,511,000), whichever is greater. Somewhere the line has to be drawn - although I'm not quite sure where - but when we hear that he is looking for a near-max contract, and that the team is willing to match all offers, that number isn't as crazy as it sounds.
The most immediate question regarding the future of the Wizards should be who will be buying the groceries for the next phase of the process. Given that he created this situation where we effectively have to blow the roster up again, does Grunfeld deserve another shot to create this team? Does he get a pass for his decisions to go for home runs instead of singles and doubles so often in the draft? Should a GM be brought in that utilizes advanced metrics (Moneyball) - for what it's worth, if I'm Ted, I ask Kevin Pritchard what his prize is and add a million - the way that Daryl Morey does in Houston? Either way, once Ted answers this question, the next one should be what to do with JaVale McGee.
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