OK, I've put this off long enough. Let's get to it. With a couple of exceptions, the West is basically split into two factions (Uh, no not THOSE two factions): One group consists of teams with old legs, hoping that they can stick it out through this condensed grind of a regular season and get into the playoffs, where experience has historically offered a huge advantage. The other group consists of young teams that go 8-10 deep. Coaching may be more important than ever this season, as some teams with great talent may lose due to poor decision-making. Anyway, click below for my thoughts on the Western Conference to this point.
8. Memphis Grizzlies. With respect to Utah and their surprising start, I just don't see it. The Griz have lost Zach Randolph until March, but, for now, I have faith that Memphis can hang on until then and slide into the 8 seed. It's going to be tough though. This is a BIG loss, because they don't have many scorers as it is, and this team took off last year when the offense started running through Z-Bo. Rudy Gay being back is obviously significant, as he can fill it up, but aside from him, points are gonna be hard to come by. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo reported last Thursday night that they were in talks to send OJ Mayo to New Jersey (for who, Kerry Kittles?), but unless they get a scorer in return, they could be losing even more buckets. But I like their energy, they play good defense, and what they lack in scoring they make up for in energy, smart ballplayers and Tony Allen, who apparently is like the Gooch on Diff'rent Strokes.
7. San Antonio Spurs. The first of the cougar teams. This team is old and was losing ground as a contender BEFORE Manu Ginobili broke his hand. Tim Duncan is well into his twilight, but Tony Parker is still a top point guard (although his shooting is down this season), Gregg Popovich is still great, and I like Dejuan Blair (it still bothers me that the Wizards didn't draft him in 2009), Gary Neal, and Kawhi Leonard. They have a nice mix of youth and vets. But while their efficient play, solid defense, and Manu's return will always keep them around, I feel like their ship may have sailed as a true contender.
6. Denver Nuggets. Denver has some nice pieces. I'm a big fan of several of their players, namely Aaron Afflalo, for whom I spent the whole summer wishing the Wizards would sign. They've had some nice early season surprises: Danilo Gallinari is having a great start to the season, and what the hell has gotten into Al Harrington? And, is it me, or were the defections of Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith an "addition by subtraction" thing? Plus, the Nuggets are very efficient, tops in assists, second in points scored. As well coached as they are and despite the nice start, they are 24th in points allowed, and George Karl has had it up to here with it (I'm 5'6, so 'up to here' isn't that high up...just imagine I was Gheorge Muresan holding my arm all the way up.)! They're capable of a first round upset, they've got youth and depth, which both pose a big advantage this season, but I just don't see it at the moment. Make me a believer, Denver.
5. L.A. Clippers. Lob city! I know everybody is on the bandwagon and ready to call the Clippers the new kings of L.A. now that CP3 is in town. I'm just not ready to give that up quite yet. I need to be convinced that they're ready for the big time. I know they beat the Lakers last week and have the best PG in the league, but they're roster doesn't seem balanced to me. With Chauncey, Mo Williams, Bledsoe, and Foye, how many combo guards can one team have? They're a team to watch out for obviously, but I'm concerned with the lack of depth at the swing positions. Is it really a good idea to be playing Caron Butler 36 minutes a night? Get back with me when they trade for a real shooting guard. Oh, and when Vinny del Negro isn't the coach.
4. Portland Trailblazers. I like Portland. They're young, deep, and have a very balanced roster. They have a star (LaMarcus Aldridge), shooters (Matthews and Batum), bench scoring (Crawford), invaluable glue guys (Camby, Wallace, Thomas), and the enigma that is Greg Oden. They play solid defense, they are well-coached, and the chemistry appears to be good with this group. I really liked the Blazers going into last season's playoffs, think they are even better this season, and consider them a team that CAN make a serious run at the West. I'm still a bit leery though.
3. Dallas Mavericks. It's been a sluggish start for the champs, particularly Dirk. Maybe this veteran team may be putting the regular season on cruise control and pacing themselves for the playoffs. I thought the loss of Tyson Chandler would be a MAJOR loss, but Rick Carlisle is a great defensive coach so the loss seems to have been mitigated so far. The issue has been scoring, but that will obviously go up. Heartbroken Lamar Odom will find a role on this team and even though they loss Barea to the land of a thousand point guards (Minnesota), Delonte West has been an apt replacement. The Mavs still have Dirk and what seems like 10 former all-stars on the team, I imagine that they'll be fine.
2. L.A. Lakers. I'm probably overvaluing this team. Still, I'm a sucker for the Lake Show. Let's start with some of the negatives. They were just swept by Dallas in the playoffs. They are OLD and SLOOOOOOOOOOOW. If not the worst, Derek Fisher and Steve Blake make at least the second worst point guard tandem of the playoff teams. They got screwed in the CP3 situation, and as a result panicked and traded a distraught Lamar Odom to Dallas. Mike Brown comes in as a new coach in a must-win environment. Kobe's wife filed for divorce. That's a LOT of reasons to count the Lakers out. So why do I still have them so high? If nothing else, the fact that Kobe Bryant appears to be out for blood this season. I think he's pissed about the CP3 situation, he's heard or believes that people are saying that he's getting old and is past his prime, and he's got a bad taste over how last season ended. Oh, and his wife filed for divorce. For an all-time player that seems to use turmoil and doubt as fuel, he's got a lot of angst to take out on the rest of the league. He's going for MVP this season, and a broken wrist, broken hand, broken wallet won't stop him. On top of that, the Lakers actually had some solid pickups. Where the bench was an obvious weakness last year, adding Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy to go with Metta. World. Peace. and Matt Barnes could make for a skilled, dependable bench. Jason Kapono is nothing if not a quality shooter. That tends to come in handy in the playoffs. I think Mike Brown gets a bad rep from his dealings with LeBron James, and while I don't think he's a great coach, he will bring improved defense and stay out of Kobe's way. Andrew Bynum, as mercurial as he is, is one of the top 3 centers in the league when he is healthy. He offers an offensive skillset that is rare these days. If he can keep himself harnessed, this team could easily be back in the Finals.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder. As a Wizards fan, all I ever hear about in our 17-year rebuilding plan is that we need to or are following the "OKC model". I think that's crap. Not to belittle the job that Sam Presti has done, because I think he has done masterfully, but let's be honest, how much of this wonderful job is directly correlated to the drafting of Kevin Durant? Isn't he really what stirs the drink? You can make all the shrewd financial and draft decisions that you want, unless you're the 2004 Pistons, you're not a contender without a supserstar. Point blank, period. And how about Portland? Twice with the top pick they followed the "big over small" argument, and maybe even a few years ago they thought there may be duplication in drafting that 23 guy, but wow, twice? Twice with the top pick you left the transcendent player on the board to pick big men with bum wheels? Yikes. I mean yikes. I know the Wizards drafted Kwame Brown, but it's not like we left a Hall of Famer on the board (there were some good players though: Chandler, Gasol, Joe Johnson, Z-Bo, Arenas..yea Arenas..Eff you and whatever sarcastic thing you're thinking!). Somehow I got off topic here, what were we talking about? Oh yes, the Thunder. I'm slotting them as the top seed in the West, and they'll coast through the regular season because they have a top 3 overall player a top 5 point guard (right?), and an amazing sixth man. I can't wait to see if they live up to the promise in the playoffs. Seems like they have the pieces in place. The Maynor injury was a tough loss, but I think they'll be fine to overcome that, especially if they play the Lakers in the WCF. They have everything you would think it takes to win a title. The real question about the Thunder: is this Westbrook-Durant power struggle a real thing, or just something that Bill Simmons and Jason Whitlock cooked up?
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