Now that the NBA is back and underway, I want to start documenting my thoughts for the season. This series of posts will focus on the Eastern Conference teams that I think will make the playoffs. I'm going to love looking back on these in April and seeing how amazingly off I was from reality. I'll try to give at least twice a month updates on my playoff thoughts, up until the point where it becomes obvious who's in.
***Disclaimer: I'm not an expert by any means, so if there are objections, please comment, as all feedback is appreciated. You can comment if you agree too. Listen, if you happen to have even read this much, you're either related to me or think I have some secret about you that you don't want to get out.***
Eastern Conference
8. The Field - New Jersey? Philly? Milwaukee? Who cares. Whoever is in this spot is getting swept in Round 1. Let's just put the Nets here because they have the best player of the remaining teams and they appear to have the best chance of landing Dwight Howard if he's traded during the season. Plus Mikhail Prokhorov could possibly read this and have me whacked.
7. Atlanta Hawks - At this point, the Hawks are a perennial playoff team that nobody takes seriously. They're stuck in NBA purgatory: good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to do any damage. They beat an Orlando team in the first round of last season's playoffs by letting Dwight Howard score 100 points a night and forcing him to make other players better. They lost their linchpin in Jamal Crawford to Portland, and to make matters worse, they traded the potential replacement for Crawford's instant offense off the bench at last season's trade deadline, flipping Jordan Crawford for the steady, yet underwhelming play of Kirk Hinrich. That was a BIG loss, and the acquisition of Tracy McGrady is not enough to offset that. What am I getting at here? I think the Hawks have peaked: they'll make their annual trip to the playoffs, but probably lose in the first round. They have two All-Stars that aren't difference makers (Johnson and Horford), one kid with upside (Jeff Teague), a couple of overpaid blah guys (Josh Smith and Marvin Williams) and several washed-up, yet solid, role players. Oh, and Joe Johnson is at most two seasons from having the heavyweight "Worst Contract in the NBA" title. At the very least, he's currently the U.S. champion. Eh, next.
2011-12 Regular Season Record: 36-30
6. Orlando Magic - I think Dwight Howard is overrated. There, I said it. I mean he's a game-changer on defense, great rebounder, and will give you a solid 20 points a night, but is he a leader? Don't get me wrong, the guy is a star, one of the best players in the league. I just don't think he's a super-duper star. I don't think a team can win a title with him as the top banana. For him to win a title, he needs to be the second guy. He doesn't make his teammates better. Look what Atlanta did in the playoffs against Orlando last season. Most teams put all of their defensive efforts on a team's alpha dog and makes the other players beat them. Atlanta let Howard score as much as he wanted. The result? Hawks in 6. So where are we now? Howard reportedly asked to be traded and when asked why, his response was that the front office didn't listen to his personnel suggestions. I'm going to give him benefit of the doubt and say that I don't believe that he said that. Since that rumor, he's only changed his story another seven times. Yep, I TOTALLY trust that guy to lead my team. And I totally trust a team with Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, and Glen Davis logging big minutes. This prediction may actually be a little high, as that GM genius Otis Smith could be plotting a trade as we speak. Who knows, maybe bringing in his boy Big Baby and signing Larry Hughes are enough to keep Dwight in Orlando, right? If you believe that, I'd like to get you to invest in a new business idea I've heard about: Rent 'Em Spoons!
2011-12 Regular Season Record: 38-28
5. Indiana Pacers - I'm pretty excited about these guys. They come into the season with a nice little squad. They picked up solid veteran leadership and smart play in David West to go along with a core of Danny Granger, Paul George, Darren Collison, Psycho T and Roy Hibbert. They have good depth, solid glue guys, and even a wildcard in Lance Stephenson. A full season under Frank Vogel, who seems like Coach Wally Riggendorf from the Texas State Armadillos in Necessary Roughness, should have this team playing good, efficient, hard-nosed basketball. I have to curb my enthusiasm with these guys: I'm going pretty hard giving them the fifth seed over Orlando, but I really think they're going to make a jump. They are definitely an up and coming team in the Eastern Conference.
2011-12 Regular Season Record: 39-27
4. Boston Celtics - The Celtics are full of questions this season. How will an already aging team handle the rigors of a shortened, compressed season? How much did the clear shopping of Rajon Rondo in the Chris Paul sweepstakes hurt his psyche? How big a blow was it to have David West in their grasp, only to get spurned at the last minute and watch him go to Indiana? What about the sad news about Jeff Green? Much like the Hawks above, I think Baaaaastin has peaked. I mean these guys are old. They did well in trading Big Baby for Brandon Bass, but I think the Cs have just enough to get to the second round of the playoffs and get run off the court by a much more athletic opponent. I could be wrong. Maybe Kevin Garnett's knees aren't shot and his complaint about cramming training camp into what seems like one episode of 24 was just a Jedi mind trick. Maybe Rondo turns the trade rumors into motivation. Maybe Jermaine O'Neal is still alive! All I see is LeBron getting a rebound in the second round, going coast to coast and dunking on the entire team at one time.
2011-12 Regular Season Record: 43-23
3. Chicago Bulls - Derrick Rose has already backed up his MVP play last season with a dramatic win over the Lakers on Christmas. The Bulls made what could be a season-defining move by signing Richard Hamilton. His scoring could greatly help a team that relied too much on one guy last season. As great as D-Rose is, and as good as Tom Thibodeau is at cooking up defensive schemes, this team seems like it doesn't curl all the way over. Boozer still doesn't show up enough and while they have several gritty players, I don't think they have the talent to hang with New York and the Heatles.
2011-12 Regular Season Record: 46-20
2. New York Knicks - Tyson Chandler. Baron Davis. I think the Knicks got markedly better in the two positions where they needed the most help. I don't care what people say, I think Baron Davis will not be a fat tub of goo in New York. He should be rejuvenated and loving the spotlight in the Big Apple. The depth looks like a concern for NY, but that starting lineup is among the best in the league. Tyson Chandler, for my money, was the second best pickup of the offseason. His help defense and intangible swag will make the Knicks a force. It may even inspire Amare and Melo to play some D! (Don't push it, buddy). Ok, sorry. Anyway, if they just had a big body or two to help spell Amare, I'd really think the Knicks could be right in the ballgame with Miami. I thought Josh Harrellson didn't completely suck at Kentucky, so maybe he'll be more than just six fouls. They are amusingly thin at bigs: Chandler, Amare, Harrellson, and Jerome Jordan (Steve Novak doesn't count as a big, and Jerome Jordan only technically does). After them, we're talking about Jared Jeffries and Renaldo Balkman (cue Stephen A.). I know what you all are thinking, I completely overlooked the significance of them picking up Mike Bibby. Let's move on.
2011-12 Regular Season Record: 47-19
1. Miami Heat - I, like many of you, loved watching LeBron crumble in just about every clutch moment of the Finals. I laughed with you at Chris Bosh and his softness, and reveled in the fact that a "team", not a collection of great talent, beat the mighty Heatles. So after all of that, why do I have Miami as the top seed in the East, and by a whopping six games? I can't continue to defend my disdain. And to be honest, I think they got better. Not only by way of the embarrassment of losing and the lessons that they learned along the way last season, but they actually picked up a couple of really good players. Picking up Shane Battier was a coup, and I think Norris Cole was a sleeper in the draft. Haslem should be healthy, Chalmers should be one year wiser, and Eddy Curry is down to a lean 400 pounds. It's just impossible for me not to see them back in the Finals. I see too many flaws in all of the other teams in the East, and while the Heatles certainly have flaws of their own, I don't see them as enough to keep them from at least getting back to where they were last year when they were running on talent alone. I can't help but think that LeBron and Dwyane Wade will be much better acclimated to playing together, and the Heatles will be more of a gelled unit this season. As a Wizards fan, all of this is painful to type.
2011-12 Regular Season Record: 53-13
No comments:
Post a Comment